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France and Italy want to produce 700 new Aster class missiles for the SAMP/T air defence platform in the near future. But to make this effort viable, they will also need to increase production of these missiles from 20 to at least 40 per month and significantly reduce their production cycle time.
During the Paris Air Show 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron made an official statement on the completion of the deployment of the Italian-French SAMP/T air defence system in Ukraine.
This deployment is seen as a significant event for Ukraine, as the SAMP/T system provides protection not only against cruise missiles, but also against ballistic missiles from Russia.
The SAMP/T system typically includes a Thompson-CSF ARABEL radar, a combat control room (CCR) and up to six launchers capable of carrying 8 Aster-30 anti-aircraft missiles each. The SAMP/T system is unique in that it requires only 14 people to operate it, while the Patriot system requires about 90 people to maintain it.
However, the actual number of launchers in a battery may vary. Open sources indicate that Italy and France have a total of 18 SAMP/T batteries with 1,400 missiles. As of the beginning of 2022, the French military had 40 SAMP/T launchers and the Italian military had 20 launchers, i.e. an average of 3-4 launchers per battery.
Ukraine has a high demand for air defence systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. According to current estimates, the country needs about 50 Patriot batteries to adequately cover critical infrastructure within the country.
Raytheon, the manufacturer of the Patriot system, plans to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces with five more batteries by the end of 2024, in addition to the two batteries already in place. Given the current circumstances, it would be logical to expand the supply of the Italian-French SAMP/T ATGM, which can perform similar tasks to the Patriot.
In the case of the SAMP/T system, the small number of available launchers is not the only limiting factor. Current industrial capacities are insufficient to replenish the stockpile of anti-aircraft missiles for these systems.
In early 2023, France and Italy agreed on a strategic plan to produce 700 Aster missiles over several years. This includes both the Aster-30 land-based missiles for the SAMP/T system and the Aster-15 sea-based missiles. To achieve this production volume, the defence industries of both countries must use their capacities simultaneously.
In addition, French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecorne said in February 2023 that as part of its new defence strategy, France intends to shorten the production cycle of Aster family anti-aircraft missiles – and double the number of missiles produced, to 40 units per month instead of 20.
For comparison, as of June 2023, the United States has the capability to produce 450 PAC-3 anti-aircraft missiles for the Patriot system annually, with the potential to increase this number by 20% within three years.
The situation suggests that due to the limited number of launchers and the slow pace of replenishment of anti-aircraft missiles, the likelihood of additional SAMs/ATGMs being supplied to Ukraine remains low. But the possibility of receiving more platforms should not be ruled out.
Read also:
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