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In early summer 2026, Ukraine seized the initiative in the grueling four-year war. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy showcased the country’s successes on the front lines and technological advances to the West, convincing them that Russia could be defeated. Following closed-door consultations in Turkey, Donald Trump expressed his intention to meet Kyiv’s need for air defense systems and described the meeting’s atmosphere as excellent. At the same time, Ambassador Olga Stefanishyna was actively building pragmatic relationships with officials in Washington.
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However, this optimism faded within a few days. During the next meeting, Trump refused to approve additional deliveries of Patriot systems and reneged on his promise to allow Ukrainian companies to manufacture these systems independently. Meanwhile, in Kyiv, long-standing corruption issues led to the dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and the resignation of Stefanyishyna, who was accused of illicit enrichment (she denies the allegations). Fedorov’s dismissal sparked public protests in Kyiv.
Zelenskyy also appealed to Trump to persuade Elon Musk to allow the use of SpaceX’s Starlink network to guide strikes against Russian missile batteries. Trump reacted to the idea without enthusiasm, while Musk refuses to make concessions and calls for peace agreements. At the same time, the visit to Kyiv by Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as announced by Trump, is met with skepticism by Ukrainian officials.
The White House, fearing the Kremlin’s reaction and worried about ammunition shortages amid its own war with Iran, has left Kyiv facing the threat of yet another winter under shelling. A U.S. administration official stated that transferring Patriot technology to Ukraine could jeopardize America’s military advantage. In response, Zelenskyy suggested at a meeting of the Military Council that partners might be deliberately withholding air defense systems to make Ukraine more compliant.
This crisis stemmed from Kyiv’s frustration with the slowness of the Joe Biden administration; as a result, following the 2024 election, the Ukrainian side had been counting on swift negotiations under Trump. However, Trump demanded specific benefits for the U.S. Zelenskyy rejected Senator Lindsey Graham’s initial plan for mineral extraction, which would have turned Ukraine into an economic vassal. An attempt at compromise last February ended in a public scandal at the White House, when Trump and J.D. Vance accused Zelenskyy of ingratitude.
Later, Stefanyishyna was shocked by the warm reception Vladimir Putin received at the summit with Trump in Anchorage. Despite a harsh winter with temperatures below -18 °C and attacks on the power grid, Ukraine held its ground and seized the initiative by blocking Starlink access for Russians, launching drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, and cutting off supply routes to Crimea.
The military campaign in Iran gave Ukraine a chance to offer the U.S. its own interceptor drones costing just $1,000, although Trump publicly dismissed this need. Despite this, the U.S. military highly praised Ukraine’s Delta system. Successes on the front lines briefly shifted Trump’s rhetoric; at the NATO summit in Ankara, he even offered a license to manufacture the Patriot system.
However, these positive developments quickly came to naught. Due to corruption investigations, Stefanyishyna resigned as ambassador and returned to Kyiv, where a court set her bail at 6 million hryvnia ($130,000). Fedorov also attributed his dismissal to resistance from the military-industrial lobby against his reforms. The absence of an ambassador, Trump’s refusal regarding the Patriot system, and Musk’s intransigence coincided with an intensification of shelling: during the latest attack on Kyiv involving 24 ballistic missiles, not a single one was intercepted, resulting in the deaths of 17 civilians.
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