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According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian ultranationalists are growing anxious about the ability of Ukrainian forces to inflict increasingly significant losses on the occupiers. One of the radical military analysts of the Russian Federation stated that the industrial power of Western countries significantly exceeds Russian resources, and this is already reflected in the intensity of Ukrainian drone attacks. According to him, Russia is facing a shortage of missiles for air defense systems, which will only contribute to the scale of such strikes in the future and could lead to Moscow’s ultimate defeat.
The expert believes that the Kremlin is facing a dilemma: to agree to humiliating peace terms or to launch a large-scale offensive operation, for which the military leadership is not yet ready, so it is increasingly leaning toward the first scenario. Such pessimism is fueled by the successful destruction of Russia’s oil infrastructure in the Baltic region, which has caused serious damage to the Russian economy.
ISW analysts emphasize that among Russian supporters of the war, there is a growing recognition of Ukraine’s tactical successes, in particular in the effective use and adaptation of medium-range drones. In particular, on March 26, a well-known Russian military blogger expressed doubt that the occupation forces would be able to remedy the critical situation at the front in the coming months. He noted that effective counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine had undermined Russia’s ability to conduct offensive operations in 2026.
In addition, skepticism about the prospects for aggression is increasingly being voiced in Russian circles. For example, State Duma deputy Alexei Zhuravlev downplayed the significance of the battle for Kostiantynivka, arguing that Sloviansk and Kramatorsk should be the priority targets. At the same time, another Russian observer emphasized Ukraine’s technological superiority, criticized the slowness of its own command, and acknowledged serious communication problems, a lack of electronic warfare systems, and the effectiveness of Ukrainian UAVs in destroying logistics chains.
These admissions come amid reports from General Oleksandr Syrsky that in March, the use of interceptor drones and the effectiveness of destroying enemy targets increased by almost 55% compared to the previous month. According to official data, since the beginning of spring, drone units have already successfully eliminated more than 2,300 enemy aerial targets.
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